U.S. President Barack Obama’s trade agenda is running into potentially fatal opposition within his own party on the eve of a critical vote, and there might be only one person who can save it: Obama himself.
Speaker John Boehner’s plan to bring a package of trade bills to the House floor Friday is proving to be a big gamble, as both senior Republicans and Democrats are privately wondering whether they have the votes to pass several key portions.
The most pressing concern is over Trade Adjustment Assistance, a program to retrain workers who lose their jobs to free trade. The initiative is not very popular with Republicans, and aides in both parties estimate that only 50 to 100 GOP lawmakers will vote for it. And with unions actively lobbying against the bill, a senior House Democratic aide said it will be “a major problem” to wrangle “significant House Democratic support” for the measure.
That jobs assistance bill needs 218 votes to pass. Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), a close ally of Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), has been vocal against TAA, and raising other objections about the package.
This is a serious problem for Obama. If TAA fails, the House will not take up Trade Promotion Authority, the key legislation that would give Obama fast-track authority to negotiate the sweeping Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement. Under that scenario both sides would have to regroup and figure out a way forward — or else the 12-nation trade deal could fall apart.
House Democrats will meet at noon in the Capitol, and Labor Secretary Tom Perez is expected to attend to try to save the package.
If TAA fails, the House will not take up Trade Promotion Authority, the key legislation that would give Obama fast-track authority to negotiate the sweeping Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, TPP.
Opposition to TAA — and how it is funded — has only surfaced in the last few weeks. An identical package passed the Senate last month.
John Boehner
Boehner (R-Ohio) and Pelosi have negotiated to replace the Medicare cuts that originally funded the jobs bill with another budget offset — more stringent enforcement of tax laws. Pelosi then objected to how Boehner was planning to advance the legislation.
Late Wednesday night, Boehner agreed to a complicated procedure pitched by Pelosi to advance the package. It would ensure that the Medicare cuts that originally paid for the TAA bill are nullified by another piece of preceding legislation. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) issued a public statement Wednesday, ensuring he would give swift consideration to the bill that replaces the Medicare reductions.
Boehner began the process of bringing the bills to the floor by securing a unanimous consent agreement for one of the four bills that need a vote. Pelosi, who says she is neutral on giving Obama fast-track authority, says she also has concerns about public-employee language in the agreement, and is saying that she would also like policy changes alongside the process she pitched to Boehner.
The GOP leadership believes Obama needs to step in.
“Republicans are going to do our part, but the president will have to deliver on TAA to get this done,” said Kevin Smith, Boehner’s communications director.