House Republicans could take another shot at passing Obama’s trade agenda this week, just days after Democrats handed Obama a stinging defeat by blocking the package. But it’s not clear what’s happened since last Friday’s trade votes that could change the minds of the more than 70 Democrats Obama needs to advance the centerpiece of his economic agenda.
House Democratic sources suggest any vote switching en masse is very unlikely at this point. Still, House Republicans are planning to use the bully pulpit to pressure Democrats into voting yes on the trade assistance program known as TAA, which offers help and retraining for American workers displaced by free trade. Republicans and Obama need to pass the TAA bill to clear a fast-track authority measure that the president needs to complete a huge 12-nation Pacific trade deal.
But House Democrats, who largely oppose the new trade deal, moved to block the TAA measure as a way to scuttle the entire package, leaving Republicans and the administration sifting through the wreckage over the weekend.
GOP sources say the House is likely to vote again on trade early this week, although it’s unlikely Republicans will make major changes to either measure.
Finding new Democratic votes for TAA will be very difficult. House Democratic sources say that anyone who switches their vote now will be a prime target for labor and other progressive groups, who are looking to stop the Trans-Pacific Partnership at any cost. Labor groups have already put on the full-court press, with major ad buys in the districts of swing Democratic votes, and they’re expected to keep applying the pressure.
Finding new Democratic votes for the trade agenda will be very difficult.
“The president has a lot of work to do with his own party to turn this around, to salvage this,” said Ways and Means Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) on Fox News Sunday. “I think that this can be salvaged because I think people are going to realize just how big the consequences are for American leadership.”
Speaker John Boehner has a few other options.
The Ohio Republican settled on a procedural process that would require the House to pass both the fast-track measure, called Trade Promotion Authority, and the worker assistance bill in order for the entire package to make it to Obama’s desk.
Boehner could change course, and split the trade package into separate bills that could be passed independently. But that would create its own set of problems. First, it would require the House to pass the fast-track bill again, after narrowly clearing it last week on a 219-211 vote. But more problematically, it would require the entire package to head back to the Senate, where it could be easily be bogged down.
More likely, Boehner will stick with his plan to pass the measures separately and then combine them to be sent to the president. GOP leadership sources say they doubt they can pass a combined TPA-TAA bill, given GOP antipathy to TAA.
There are some pressure points in the coming months that could force action. Obama needs fast-track trade authority soon, or else the entire Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations could collapse. And TAA expires at the end of September, and as long as Republicans are in control, this is the last opportunity to renew it — which will put pressure on Democrats to change their stance as the deadline draws nearer.
Traditionally, Democrats have been strong supporters of TAA, which offers a kind of safety net for workers who lose their jobs following trade expansions. It’s only the odd procedural circumstances that linked the two bills that brought Democratic opposition to TAA.
Rep. Ron Kind, the Wisconsin Democrat leading the pro-trade coalition in the House, predicted members would face pressure as they returned home for the weekend — forcing them to reconsider voting against such a long-held Democratic priority.
Obama needs fast-track trade authority soon, or else the entire Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations could collapse.
“We’re hoping that, through the weekend and in the coming days, things will come down a little temperature-wise and calmer minds will open up those lines of communications,” Kind said Friday. “We have to figure out a path working with the Senate and in coordination with the White House of how to get TAA back up in a more rational climate for consideration.”
He added, “This vote is going to require bipartisan cooperation.”
But Republicans are putting the responsibility for whipping votes on Obama and the Democrats. They say they’ve done more than their part to help pass the bill and now it’s up to Obama and House Democrats like Kind to pass TAA and fast-track — the latter of which is the cornerstone of Obama’s second-term domestic agenda.
The problem for the pro-trade coalition will be to overcome the deep opposition to fast-track that has built up in the Democratic Caucus. More than 150 Democrats voted against giving Obama the authority needed to expedite approval of the Pacific trade deal — and Democratic sources say it’s highly unlikely that many of those lawmakers will change their vote.
Nancy Pelosi and John Boehner | EPA
Complicating Obama’s quest is Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of California, who surprised her fellow Democrats when she announced her opposition to the trade package in a floor speech just minutes before lawmakers were set to vote. In her address, she suggested that GOP lawmakers could sway Democrats if the two parties could come to an agreement on a long-term highway bill, funding for which expires at the end of July.
“The prospects for passage of such a bill will greatly increase with the passage of a robust highway bill,” she said. “We look forward to working in a bipartisan way for a trade promotion authority bill that has better transparency, more consultation with Congress and stronger protections for congressional priorities — especially labor rights and the environment.”
Republican leaders are very unlikely to meet her demands. GOP leaders already feel burned after working to fix a Medicare pay-for included in TAA to which Democrats objected. Pelosi helped negotiate that deal with Boehner before ultimately voting against it because of other policy concerns.
It doesn’t help Obama that unions have been heralding Friday’s vote as a big win. AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka said it was a “significant day.” Unions have been putting intense pressure on lawmakers to oppose TPA — even spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads against Democrats who pledged to vote for fast-track.
“American workers came together and spoke with one voice about the path their country and economy should follow,” Trumka said.
That intensity will only increase as lawmakers return to D.C. on Monday for a second week of votes on trade.