New York Democrat Sen. Chuck Schumer stole the headlines and put the White House on the defensive when he said he would vote against President Barack Obama’s nuclear agreement with Iran.
But Obama’s backstop in the House, where the Democratic Caucus is dominated by liberals, is holding firm.
Close to 40 House Democrats have come out in favor of the deal since it was first announced in mid-July, while 16 senators have voiced their support. And there are dozens of additional Democrats who’ve signaled in interviews and statements that they are inclined to back Obama’s deal, which aims to stop Tehran’s development of a nuclear weapon in exchange for lifting economic sanctions. Most notably, not one of the 151 House Democrats who signed a May letter in support of the broad outlines of the agreement have announced opposition to the final product.
Obama needs at least 144 House Democrats to stick by him to sustain a veto of any GOP legislation that would undermine or dismantle the deal with Iran.
Growing Democratic support comes despite fierce opposition from Republicans and a huge, multimillion dollar effort by anti-deal groups like the powerful American Israel Public Affairs Committee. Republicans are planning to pass legislation this September that would disapprove of the deal and prevent the lifting of key sanctions, a move that would scuttle the agreement.
And opposition from Schumer is a significant blow for the administration, given his power and prominence in the party — he’s expected to be the leader of the Democratic Caucus after Harry Reid retires at the end of this Congress. But Schumer’s not expected to push other Democrats to oppose the deal. And even if enough swing Democrats followed Schumer and threatened to override a veto, the House would still serve as a bulwark for the agreement.
In the House, recent endorsements have come from the liberal wing of the party, including California Reps. Lois Capps, Doris Matsui and Mark Takano. Minnesota Rep. Tim Walz also announced his support this week.
“This deal gives us the best chance we have had in years to halt the Iranian nuclear program,” Walz said on Tuesday. “It dismantles the progress they have made and opens up the country to strict inspections.”
On Wednesday, Massachusetts Rep. Niki Tsongas voiced her support.
“The consequences of rejecting this deal cannot be underestimated, leaving the United States isolated with no leverage and weakened alliances and credibility. Iran, already a nuclear threshold state, would be left unchecked with no reason to hold back its pursuit of a nuclear weapon,” Tsongas said.
So far, only nine House Democrats have come out against the deal — but that number is likely to edge up slightly by the time the House holds its September vote. And Schumer’s opposition is a setback, particularly given how tight the Senate vote is expected to be.
POLITICO reported this week that Schumer has called 20 to 30 Democrats since he announced his opposition last week to explain why he can’t support the deal. Sources said, however, that Schumer is promising not to whip lawmakers against the agreement.
And even Democrats who support the deal had some reservations; Matsui and Takano included broad criticisms of the deal’s framework in their announcements of support.
“The deal is not perfect. No diplomatic endeavor ever results in an agreement wherein one side or the other gets everything it hoped for,” Takano said. “Iran has broken previous agreements, and we should be under no illusion that this deal means that they are now trustworthy or our friends.”
But Takano added that having had family members affected by the atomic bombs that the U.S. dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II made him inclined to support the deal.
“Preventing the proliferation of nuclear weaponry is more than sound policy; it is a moral imperative,” he said.
The House and Senate are both expected to take up resolutions disapproving of the deal in mid-September when Congress returns from its five-week recess. The measures will likely pass, with nearly unanimous Republican support and some Democrats as well.
Obama has pledged to veto any legislation that stops the agreement from moving forward. It would then fall to either House or Senate Democrats to sustain that veto. Senior staffers in the House have predicted for weeks that lawmakers have the numbers to back Obama and prevent an override of his veto.
House lawmakers currently on record opposing the deal include Steve Israel of New York — a leading Jewish lawmaker — and Nita Lowey, Eliot Engel, Grace Meng and Kathleen Rice of New York, Albio Sires of New Jersey, Ted Deutch of Florida and Juan Vargas of California.
“Iran is a grave threat to international stability. It is the largest state sponsor of terror in the world and continues to hold American citizens behind bars on bogus charges,” Engel said last week. “We can have no doubt about the malevolent intent of a country’s leaders who chant ‘Death to America’ and ‘Death to Israel’ just days after concluding a deal.”
Many lawmakers, including influential leaders, are still keeping their positions quiet. Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif) is leading the whip operation for the deal in the House but her top lieutenants, Minority Whip Steny Hoyer and Democratic Caucus Chairman Xavier Becerra are both publicly undecided.
Hoyer, a Maryland Democrat, traveled to Israel over the August recess with a group of House Democrats and Republican Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California. On their visit, the lawmakers met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — an ardent critic of the deal.
Hoyer didn’t make any comments on the nuclear agreement while in Israel but released a jointly authored statement with McCarthy on Wednesday underlining congressional support for Israel’s security.
“As we visited the towns of Ashkelon and Sderot near Gaza, we saw firsthand that without the Iron Dome, many more people would have lost their lives,” the joint statement read. “Congress stands united with Israel, not only in support of its Iron Dome defenses, but also in preserving Israel’s security and ensuring the safety of its people. In these dangerous times, Israel can always be certain that the American people are by their side.”